Who can be No. 1 seed in NCAA tournament? Breaking down contenders

Jan. 28, 2026, 8:37 a.m. ET

College basketball this season is top heavy, with the top 10 of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll having a combined 14 losses and no one with more than three defeats. That makes for a fun race to grab the precious No. 1 seed.

We all saw last season how valuable the No. 1 seed is when all four top teams in the bracket made it to the Final Four, the second time it’s happened since seeding began in 1979. With how strong the top teams in the country look, that very much could happen again, making it paramount to get the top spots in the bracket and get the inside track to Indianapolis.

Selection Sunday is six weeks away, but we are getting a good sense of who is in the running to be a No. 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA tournament.

Arizona

Record: 21-0 (8-0). Quad 1 record: 9-0. NET Ranking: 1.

Why Arizona is here: The Wildcats put themselves in the top spot, one of two undefeated teams left in the country. The nine Quad 1 wins are tied for the most in the country, and most of them came in what was a challenging nonconference schedule that included Florida, UConn and Alabama. Arizona had a relatively easy start to Big 12 play that showcased its dominance, and it continued playing a top brand of basketball in a road win against BYU that ended a little too close for comfort.

What’s next: The schedule only gets tougher. Arizona plays six ranked teams in 10-game stretch, which includes Iowa State, Houston and Kansas twice. Arizona will certainly be tested, but it is very safe right now in being a No. 1 seed.

Michigan

Record: 19-1 (9-1). Quad 1 record: 6-0. NET Ranking: 3.

Why Michigan is here: Remember when everyone was ready to declare Michigan national champion in November? Arguably no one had a better start than the Wolverines, who blew out teams for much of the first two months of the season, including a 40-point romp of Gonzaga. They aren’t blowing teams out as much since then, but they keep winning — the only defeat a three-point loss to a hot-shooting Wisconsin team. The Wolverines got a big resume boost by ending Nebraska’s undefeated season Tuesday, Jan. 27.

What’s next: A trip to in-state rival Michigan State is the first major road game for Michigan, and February will only get more challenging with games away from home against Purdue, Duke and Illinois in a 10-day span.

UConn

Record: 20-1 (10-0). Quad 1 record: 5-1. NET Ranking: 8.

Why UConn is here: Dan Hurley is back in the title conversation. What’s impressive about UConn’s resume is the five Quad 1 wins all came away from home, including neutral games against BYU and Illinois, as well as a road victory at Kansas. The lone blemish is a home loss to Arizona, a game the Huskies could have won. The Big East has presented some challenges, but they have emerged victorious in every conference game so far.

What’s next: The rest of Big East isn’t near UConn, with the biggest challenges two February games against St. John’s and at Villanova. This team has the easiest path to a No. 1 seed and it’s theirs to lose, even without a top five NET ranking.

Duke

Record: 19-1 (8-0). Quad 1 record: 9-1. NET Ranking: 2.

Why Duke is here: Of course, Duke found a way to be even better after Cooper Flagg left. The Blue Devils had challenging nonconference slate and made statements with wins over Kansas, Florida and Michigan State. They are a one-point loss vs. Texas Tech away from being undefeated. The nine Quad 1 wins are tied with Arizona for the most in the country, picking up more in dominating fashion in the ACC. It has won every conference game by an average margin of 15.7 points, including two routs of Louisville.

What’s next: An improved ACC will continue to challenge Duke outside of the two meetings with rival North Carolina. Clemson and Virginia visit Cameron Indoor Stadium in February, and then there’s the game against Michigan that could give it the best nonconference resume in the country.

Just on the outside

Nebraska

Record: 20-1 (9-1). Quad 1 record: 6-1. NET Ranking: 5.

Why Nebraska is here: Nebrasketball is alive and well in a historic season for the Cornhuskers. The perfect start came with some caution as they weren’t tested much to start the season, but all was validated with wins over Illinois and Michigan State. Even though its undefeated season ended against Michigan, the narrow loss proved the Cornhuskers are in the same tier of title contenders.

What’s next: The Cornhuskers are in the midst of one of their toughest stretches with Illinois up next and Purdue visiting Lincoln in a few weeks. However, the end of the regular season isn’t too treacherous. There’s a chance Nebraska gets a top-two seed for the first time, and finally captures that elusive first NCAA tournament win.

Gonzaga

Record: 21-1 (9-0). Quad 1 record: 3-1. NET Ranking: 4.

Why Gonzaga is here: Another year, another run of dominance for Gonzaga. The blowout loss to Michigan has overshadowed what’s been another outstanding start for Mark Few, with wins against Alabama and Kentucky away from the Northwest. It did enough to start the resume strong before West Coast Conference play began, which has been another relatively easy going run for Gonzaga in its last year in the conference.

What’s next: As usual, Gonzaga faces an easy rest of the regular season, with the major challenge being the two annual games against Saint Mary’s. Prime opportunity to boost the low Quad 1 resume, and the Bulldogs can hope teams above them start to slip so they can climb up the seed line.

Houston

Record: 17-2 (5-1). Quad 1 record: 4-2. NET Ranking: 11.

Why Houston is here: Last season’s national runner-up has quietly put itself back in a spot to be a No. 1 seed for the fourth-straight season. The early season loss to Tennessee doesn’t look as good with the Volunteers’ inconsistency since then, but it was able to split the season series with Texas Tech. The Cougars are still one of the best defensive teams in the country and have become even better offensively.

What’s next: The Big 12 gauntlet gives Houston more opportunities to rise, with games against BYU, Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas in the middle of February. That stretch will determine whether the Cougars can be a top seed.

Iowa State

Record: 18-2 (5-2). Quad 1 record: 5-1. NET Ranking: 7.

Why Iowa State is here: The high-powered Iowa State offense blitzed several teams to start the season, headlined by the big road victory over Purdue. It hasn’t nabbed any notable wins since then, and the two uninspiring losses have pushed the Cyclones away from a No. 1 spot, mostly thanks to suffering a Quad 2 loss at the hands of Cincinnati.

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