Team USA entered Tuesday’s World Baseball Classic game against Italy knowing that a win would clinch its spot in the tournament’s knockout round.
Instead, Italy delivered USA a stunning 8-6 loss, and a U.S. team that entered Tuesday’s game 3-0 in pool play will now be forced to await its fate for the knockout round, which is out of its hands.
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The loss drops Team USA to 3-1, while Italy improves to 3-0. Italy will face Mexico (2-1) on Wednesday in the Pool B finale that will determine who advances. Among the U.S., Italy and Mexico, only two teams can advance.
If Italy wins and drops Mexico to 2-2, USA will advance alongside 4-0 Italy as the runner-up of Group B. If Mexico wins and all three teams finish 3-1, a multi-layered tiebreaker comes into play. And Team USA didn’t do itself any favors in that tiebreaker by allowing eight runs on Tuesday.
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How the tiebreaker works
Here’s how the tiebreaker works, with the steps in order. If teams remain tied after one item, the tiebreaker moves on to the next.
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Runs allowed per defensive outs among tied teams
Earned runs allowed per defensive outs among tied teams
Highest batting average among tied teams
If Mexico wins Tuesday, the three tied teams will all be 1-1 against one another, so the tiebreaker will move on to the second item. In that case, the final margin of Wednesday’s game would impact the two steps of the tiebreaker concerning runs allowed.
Here’s what matters for the U.S. if Mexico wins and sends it to the tiebreaker:
If Italy allows four runs or less in a nine-inning loss, with just 24 defensive outs, Italy would take the tiebreaker.
If Italy allows five runs or more and still loses in that scenario, the United States would take the lead there.
Of course, things get much more complicated if the game goes to extra innings.
Team USA can take solace knowing that it could’ve been in much worse shape. Italy jumped to an 8-0 lead through the top of the sixth inning Tuesday, a margin that could’ve made it difficult for USA to compete in a tiebreaker scenario.
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Team USA added some important runs in the final innings the game, giving it a better chance in the event that Mexico wins Wednesday. USA, of course, would rather not be in this position to begin with.
Italy takes control early
Neither team scored in the first inning Tuesday, but Italy set the tone for the game in the second.
Kyle Teel led off the top of the frame with a solo home run off of USA starter Nolan McLean, a 24-year-old prospect for the New York Mets.
McLean then hit Jac Caglianone with a pitch, setting up Sam Antonacci for more Italian fireworks.
Antonacci hit a two-run blast in the next at-bat, and Italy ultimately left the second inning with a 3-0 lead.
In the fourth inning, it was Caglianone’s turn to strike.
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Ryan Yarbrough, in relief of McLean, allowed a leadoff walk to Teel. Caglianone then deposited a sweeper into the right-field bleachers for a 5-0 Italy lead, and the pressure on Team USA ramped up a notch.
In the sixth, Italy put runners on first and second with one out, and U.S reliever Brad Keller induced a potential double-play ground ball out of Antonacci. But Keller’s throw to second was low, and the ball caromed off Bobby Witt Jr.’s glove and into center field.
Instead of an inning-ending double play, Italy scored a run and kept rolling.
Italy tacked on two more runs before the inning was over and left the frame with an 8-0 lead.
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USA adds potentially important runs
But Team USA didn’t quit.
Gunnar Henderson hit a solo home run in the bottom of the sixth inning to get the U.S. on the board. Then, in the seventh, Pete Crow-Armstong delivered a mammoth, three-run home run into the right-field bleachers to cut Italy’s lead to 8-4.
Roman Anthony drove in another for Team USA in the the eighth, and Bryce Harper took the plate as the tying run with two outs and runners on the corners. But he hit into an inning-ending fly ball, and Italy maintained an 8-5 lead through eight.
Crow-Armstrong added a solo shot for his second home run of the game to lead off the ninth. But USA didn’t score again. Italian closer and Red Sox pitcher Greg Weissert struck Aaron Judge out for the final out with a man on first base, sealing the 8-6 victory for Italy.
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USA is now left to sweat out Wednesday’s game between Mexico and Italy.
If Italy wins, the U.S. advances. If Mexico wins, the U.S. will be left to hope that its late-inning runs Tuesday were enough to get the job done.
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