Can USA make the World Cup final? Breaking down possible path

Updated July 2, 2026, 2:16 p.m. ET

The U.S. men national team is on to the World Cup round of 16.

While leading goal scorer Florian Balogun’s red card in the 2-0 Round of 32 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina may put the USMNT at a roster disadvantage moving forward, the American hosts enter their July 6 match against Belgium as a slight odds favorite, according to BetMGM.

Belgium survived Senegal’s upset scare on July 1, capping regular time with two goals in the final minutes before winning on a Youri Tielemans penalty kick in extra time. But make no mistake: Belgium was on the ropes for most of the match.

So, with it almost being America’s 250th birthday, let’s dare to dream. Here’s a look at the U.S. men’s potential road past Belgium through the World Cup final, based on their potential opponents and what the oddsmakers say.

Watch every World Cup match live on Fubo

World Cup round of 16: U.S. vs. Belgium, Monday, July 6

Let’s say that U.S. pace overcomes Belgium’s skill and star Christian Pulicic and captain Tim Ream feel at home against European competition. BetMGM has the U.S. as a +150 favorite to win in regular time, let’s say 2-1 as Belgium fails to mount another furious comeback.

World Cup round of 8: U.S. vs. Spain, Friday, July 10

With the competition down to eight teams, the U.S. faces its toughest test yet, as Spain has the third-best odds to hoist the 2026 World Cup trophy, at +750, per bet MGM. The Spaniards must handle Austria on July 2 and then the Portugal-Croatia winner on July 6 to get there, with Portugal (+1400) as the oddsmakers’ best bet for an upset run to this round.