Updated March 12, 2026, 4:19 p.m. ET
As Italy kept pouring the runs on Team USA and jeopardized America’s advancement in the World Baseball Classic, a theme that’s grown more dominant in the event’s 20 years became clear: The gap between superpowers and the rest of the global baseball world is shrinking.
Will that trend hold up now that the field has been winnowed to the quarterfinalists?
We’ll soon find out if an interloper can crash the winner’s circle, a space occupied only by three-time champion Japan, Team USA and the Dominican Republic in the first five WBCs. Yet assessing the relative strengths of each contenders reveals it may be the same old song come the finals.
That’s why they play the games, though. And that’s why USA TODAY Sports breaks down the eight quarterfinalists and their chances to win it all:
1. Dominican Republic
Your average macro-brew swilling Team USA fan won’t want to admit it, but a particularly narcissistic form of football conference self-branding also applies to this group: It Just Means More.
Nope, the Dominican does not get bonus points for how long their home-run trots last, nor the number of secret handshakes at home plate or percussion instruments among their fans. Yet the talent that committed to this event – and their performance thus far – are equally overwhelming.
The Dominicans posted a 1.130 OPS in the four pool-play games, with a WBC-high 13 home runs. Five dudes – Juan Soto, Oneil Cruz, Junior Caminero, Vladimir Guerrero and Fernando Tatis each went deep twice. And in an event where starting pitching only goes so far, a passel of big league power arms – led by Camilo Doval, Seranthony Dominguez and Abner Uribe – has been in lockdown mode, Uribe’s ninth-inning adventures against Venezuela notwithstanding.
What we foresaw before the event began remains true: Paul Skenes vs. This Lineup in the semifinals is can’t-miss programming.
2. Japan
Save for the sickos who either stay up all night or wake up before Wawa has properly brewed its breakfast blends, Samurai Japan is always something of a mystery guest that dominates its Tokyo pool before arriving stateside.
And reports confirm that Shohei Ohtani made the trip safely.
That makes them enough of a threat, but this also appears to be a very well-rounded squad, one that outscored Korea, Australia and Chinese Taipei 34-8, with Ohtani, Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida each going deep twice. Munetaka Murakami stroked a grand slam.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks ready, more than he did in Cactus League play. Lefty Ranger Suárez and the Ronald Acuña Jr.-led Venezuelans are the biggest obstacles before the finals, where the club will only have to beat one of Team USA or the Dominican.
3. USA
Close one, eh?
The Mark DeRosa Logistics Challenge was ultimately just a diversion for this squad, though we again wonder how it affected the club vibes, which were immaculate until running into Italy, and the manager’s verbal meanderings turned a surprise beatdown into a two-day story.
But Team USA is safely a quarterfinalist and can again revel in the power show Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber put on in pool play, the brilliance of Bobby Witt Jr. and the untouchable ace, Paul Skenes.
Additionally, the club got as good a draw as you could hope for as a pool-play runner-up. Canada won’t roll over, but simply may not have the firepower to stay with Team USA. Further down the road, if Skenes gets them past the Dominican, the rough start by Nolan McLean casts doubt on how the club may survive Japan in the finals should the bracket hold up.
Can Team USA Johnny Wholestaff that thing against the three-time champs? After surviving the pool, they’d love to find out.
4. Venezuela
They’ve never reached the finals of this event despite a depth of major league talent surpassed only by the Dominicans and Team USA. And Venezuela will need transcendent performances from its superstars to avoid getting out of their depth.
In short, 1-2-3 hitters Ronald Acuña Jr., Maikel Garcia and Luis Arráez will have to continue carrying them.
That troika went a combined 17 for 41 (.415) in pool play, with leadoff man Acuña reaching base 10 times in 19 plate appearances. Garcia staged a heroic 4-for-4 performance to push the Dominicans to the edge in the Pool D showdown.
Yet the nether reaches of the lineup need to emerge. William Contreras was hitless in 11 at-bats. Salvy Perez was 3 for 14 with no walks and hit into a game-ending, bases-loaded double play with the tying run at second against the Dominican Republic.
That sent them to a date with Japan. Best of luck.
5. Italy
Bravissimo!
It’s not just that this group of largely major league dudes trucked Team USA, ran unbeaten through Group B and produced the first three-homer game in WBC history.
No, the Italians displayed admirable depth throughout their lineup, to the extent they scored 15 runs in their first two games even as aircraft carrier Vinnie Pasquantino went 0-for-12 against Great Britain, Brazil and Team USA.
And then Pasquatch woke up.
The Italians pitched the ball, too, giving up a group-low 11 runs with a 2.75 ERA. Their path is navigable: Puerto Rico’s effective pitching staff but largely punchless offense will make for an enticing quarterfinal game, but the Italians should run into enough balls to reach the semis.
6. Puerto Rico
The Boricua simply can’t be held down. Though they faded late against Canada, Puerto Rico won a trio of taut games against totally serviceable opponents in Cuba, Panama and Colombia.
The big question: Is the WBC truly a game of powerball and if so, are the Puerto Ricans overmatched? They hit one home run in pool play – Darell Hernaiz’s epic 10th-inning walk-off against Panama – and averaged 3.75 runs per game. On the flip side, they can pitch – their 1.22 team ERA was best in pool play – but that number belies a lack of swing-and-miss in their staff, whose 2.35 strikeout-walk ratio ranks seventh among quarterfinalists.
Minus Jose Berríos, who was denied insurance to join them in the quarterfinals, extending this run will be challenging.
7. Canada
North America’s long continental nightmare is over: Team Canada has finally advanced out of pool play.
It was always a mystery, this squad typically laden with major leaguers failing to put it together when it mattered most. But their bullpen came up huge against Puerto Rico and Cuba, with ol’ Big Maple James Paxton, 37, supplying 2 2/3 innings of scoreless relief in the quarterfinal-clinching win.
Mike Soroka against Team USA? That will certainly test the Canadians’ good fortune.
8. Korea
The 2009 finalists haven’t been back to the title game since, and would probably have to beat the WBC’s holy trinity – Dominican Republic, Team USA, Japan – to lift the trophy for the first time. They pushed Japan to the late innings before succumbing 8-6, but a 5-4 10-inning loss to Chinese Taipei indicated the club’s depth will only further be exposed in the knockout rounds.
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