Breaking down the potential tiebreaker scenarios for Team USA to advance in the WBC

Yahoo Sports senior MLB analysts Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz examine the tiebreaker scenarios for Team USA as their World Baseball Classic fate now rests on the result of the Italy vs Mexico game. Hear the full conversation on the “Baseball Bar-B-Cast” podcast – and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.

Video Transcript

So because Team USA lost this game, they are not guaranteed a spot in the quarterfinals.

They have not punched their ticket to Miami.

What is going to happen?

Tonight, Mexico and Italy will face off at Dyken Park.

Because the tiebreaker rules, involve essentially runs allowed, what happens in this game, not just the result of this game, but particularly the score of this game, is very important.

If Italy wins again, Team USA is fine because in that scenario, Italy finishes the pool undefeated.

They win Pool B, oh my goodness, cheers to them, and then USA and Mexico would have the same record at 3-1.

At which point Or no, then Mexico just, is 2-2, and then they’re just out, so it’s not even close.

Mexico’s 2-2.

So it doesn’t even matter.

They’re done.

So if Italy wins- Yeah then USA’s 3-1, they advance as the runner-up.

However, if Italy wins, or sorry, if Mexico wins and they score four runs or fewer, that means that Team USA is eliminated on a tiebreaker.

Because if Mexico wins the game, all three of these teams will be 3-1, and because the tiebreaker is essentially runs allowed, I believe divided by defensive outs recorded, Team USA, because they gave up all these runs to Italy, in addition to giving up all the, the, even a few runs, if Mexico and Italy can play a low-scoring game that keeps both teams’ runs allowed totals low enough, that means that USA will have the worst number in that mark, and thus not advance on the tiebreaker, and thus not make it out of pool play, pool play, and thus not even make it halfway to their stated goal of, “We got seven games to win.”

Well, folks, if they don’t advance here, we’re gonna have some tough conversations about a lot of things involved.

Even acknowledging the small sample chaos that this tournament presents, there is so much going on here.

But the small sample chaos- But that, that, those are the stakes.

Yeah, it’s true.

I wanna hop in on that.

And also in the broadcast, they keep bringing up like, “Oh, well, you know, it’s a small sample.

You don’t wanna overreact to too much in a couple games.”

That’s the tournament.

That’s the exercise.

This is, at our baseball brains, and, and like we’re guilty of this, too, is like we’re just used to the 162 game sample.

We’re used to a seven-game, five-game series where more often than not, the quality wins out.

But that is not this, that is not what we’re doing here.

We’re doing a different thing.

This is a different song and it is a different dance.

And now soccer people are more used to this in the World Cup cycle where like, you know, you just have a couple bad days, and then your manager gets fired, and you have to deal with four years of discourse.

Well, guess what?

This is what we’re signing up for.

If you want this tournament to have real sauce, and boy, does it ever have real sauce this morning, then the small sample size is just part of the equation.

And that’s what makes it great because it, one of my least favorite things about baseball is that like over the Like, small sample size eventually moves back to equilibrium, and we just like have fewer extremes in a statistical sam- you know, like in the numbers.

That’s not the case here.

Like, whoever wins the MVP of this tournament might hit like 550, right?

And that’s hilarious.

And that’s great, and that’s interesting.

And so I enjoy the lack of sample size going on in the WBC.

If you are a Team USA fan, let’s just lay this out very simple.

You are watching this Italy/Mexico game tonight.

You are rooting for two very simple things: for Mexico to score five runs or for Italy to win.

If this game is low-scoring all the way to the end, you better hope Italy’s on top ’cause the fact that Team USA is going to have to watch this, I don’t know if they were already planning on flying to Miami- Together?

They should have some beers or what they Well, we’ll get to that.

I don’t know exactly how sure they were that they were going to advance.

I would love if they just go to the game.

They should just go to the game.

Sit in the stands.

Go cheer on Team Italy.

Like a travel tournament?

Put on your Go put on your Kyle Teal jerseys and cheer them on, even though they just embarrassed you the night before.

Source link