March 8, 2026, 6:03 a.m. ET
The long-term outcomes of the latest U.S and Israeli air war against Iran remain very much uncertain.
But we do know this: President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are determined like never before to shatter the Iranian regime. And they have the firepower to do it.
We also know that while Trump may well succeed in breaking Iran, he appears to have no plans to fix it after the bombs and missiles stop falling.
The Iranian people and whatever remains of the central government will be left to rebuild – or possibly to sink into civil war – on their own. This is not Iraq in 2003, and Trump has shown zero interest in nation-building.
Trump is breaking Iran. Will he follow other presidents in ‘buying’ it?
Every American president from Harry Truman to Barack Obama followed some version of the Pottery Barn rule (“if you break it, you buy it”) of warfare.
That approach worked spectacularly well in Japan, South Korea and West Germany. And failed horribly in Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam.
Don’t expect, however, for Trump and the generals who report to him to stick around in Iran after the objectives of this air campaign are accomplished. What, by the way, are those objectives? It’s a fair question because Trump and his team seem to move the goalposts by the day.
The first objective has already been completed – decapitate the regime and sow confusion and fear among the leadership that remains.
The second is well underway – degrade the Iranian military and the infrastructure it needs to operate beyond the ability to rebuild anytime soon. The United States and Israel are swinging terrible, swift swords at an overwhelming pace, and nothing – not even a warship more than 2,000 miles from the war zone – is safe from American firepower.
The third objective appears to be to give the Iranian people a chance to finally topple the Islamic extremists who have terrorized their nation for nearly 50 years. This is the best opportunity since the 1979 revolution for Iranians to drive terrorists and murderers from the halls of power.
That final objective – if it were to succeed – would be a best-case scenario for Iran, America and Israel, and the world.
Trump will likely leave Iran create its own free world
But best-case scenarios rarely manifest into reality in the Middle East. We have seen the bloody aftermath of overthrowing tyrants in Iraq, Libya and Syria. While the world is better and safer without Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gadhafi and Bashar al-Assad, respectively, the nations they so long tormented and abused have yet to recover.
The same fate may well await Iran. Trump is at least giving Iranians a chance to replace the tyrants who rule over them with something better. But the days, months and years after regime change would be perilous, no matter who steps forward to lead.
Neither the Iranian people nor we should expect a helping hand from Washington. The Donald J. Trump School of Democracy doesn’t appear to be in the plans for Tehran after this latest pummeling is done.
Nor perhaps should it be. No matter what progressive critics charge, the United States hasn’t engaged Iran as an enemy state ever since Jimmy Carter was president because of oil. It’s because successive ayatollahs and the thugs who surrounded them orchestrated and financed terrorism in the Middle East and far beyond.
If Trump and Netanyahu can finally put a permanent end to Iran’s dangerous ambitions, we will have won a victory that exceeds what most of us thought possible. That would be enough.
And as much as I hope and pray that Iranians finally taste true freedom, they may have to win that day on their own.
Tim Swarens is a former deputy editor of USA TODAY and former opinion editor of The Indianapolis Star.
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