‘Help is on its way,’ Trump tells Iranians as he urges them to keep protesting – live updates

Trump keeps everyone guessing over Iran plans – what are some of his options?published at 20:27 GMT 13 January

20:27 GMT 13 January

Paul Adams
Diplomatic correspondent

Image source, Mandel NGAN / AFP via Getty Images

When Donald Trump posted “HELP IS ON ITS WAY”, it set off a tidal wave of speculation about what form “help” would take.

And that, of course, was the point. To keep everyone guessing.

But what lessons can we learn, if any, from Donald Trump’s other recent intervention: Venezuela?

The dramatic removal of Nicolás Maduro did not represent regime change, but rather a shock to the Venezuelan government, designed to change its behaviour.

So far, it seems to be working. Washington has taken control of Venezuelan oil, the government of Delcy Rodríguez is playing ball and over 100 political prisoners have been released.

Could something similar be on Donald Trump’s mind when it comes to Iran?

The US has many tools at its disposal to shock the Iranian regime – though flying in to remove the supreme leader is almost certainly not one of them.

By targeting barracks of the Basij militia or Revolutionary Guard, for example, it could show the government that there’s a heavy price to pay for its repression.

Cyber-attacks and other covert activities could put the regime, already weakened by Israeli and American attacks in 2024 and 2025, on the back foot.

The prize might be an Iranian commitment to lower, or abandon, its nuclear ambitions, along with a halt to the killing, the release of political prisoners – including foreigners effectively held as hostages – and greater freedoms.

But it’s hard to see the regime in Tehran agreeing to any of this without some form of dramatic intervention from the US.