January 26, 2026

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Rubio says US not at war with Venezuela, as Maduro set to appear in New York court on Monday


Analysis

We’re seeing the ‘gunboat diplomacy’ of the previous centurypublished at 22:01 GMT 4 January

Joe Inwood
World news correspondent

Generally, client governments are established with at least the illusion of independence, no matter how implausible.

We don’t normally see the leader of the dominant power holding a news conference to declare they now run the country. But that’s exactly what happened yesterday, as Donald Trump addressed the cameras.

True, it’s too soon to say for certain that a client Venezuelan government is the eventual US endgame – or that Caracas would comply.

But given a full-scale military invasion looking unlikely, control from afar seems the most obvious way for Trump to make good on his controversial – and as yet unfulfilled – claim to run Venezuela.

Historically, the US approach was to secretly back – and then later recognise as legitimate – right wing groups, especially in Latin America, couching their involvement in terms like “liberation from Communism”.

The first example was Guatemala’s President Arbenz, who was labelled a communist – and eventually overthrown in 1954 by right-wing rebels backed by the CIA.

It was the first of several similar incidents, leading to the long-term suspicion of US interference.

Returning to the present day, far from being an ideological ally, Delcy Rodriguez was deputy to the socialist president just removed by Washington.

She’s publicly rejected any attempts at what she called “American imperialism”.

But the preferred method of attempted control here is not patronage, but the threat of going the same way as her predecessor. The vast US naval presence remains in the Caribbean – and President Trump has said a “second and much larger attack” remains an option.

In that sense, what we’re seeing here isn’t a return to the coups of the Cold War, but the “Gunboat Diplomacy” of the previous century.

It’s a sign of a rapidly changing world, that 19th century realpolitik is now being espoused on prime-time television.



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