Explained: Where do we stand on Ukraine deal – and what’s main obstacle to peace?
A lot has happened this week and today we’ve got the first-ever trilateral talks of the war between the US, Russia and Ukraine.
But how much progress has there actually been on a deal to end the war?
Who’s saying what?
This week, Donald Trump told our business and economics correspondent Paul Kelso, in Davos, that a peace deal was “getting close”.
Watch that here…
Trump’s US, though, has a tendency to be optimistic about the progress of peace talks at times – and the president himself can change his mind from one extreme to another.
It was not even two weeks ago that he was accusing Volodymyr Zelenskyy of getting in the way of peace. Prior to that, Trump had said he thought the war in Ukraine would end “pretty soon”.
Ukraine has also suggested peace efforts are progressing, but it’s been more guarded in what it has said than Washington.
During his speech at Davos yesterday, Zelenskyy said: “The documents aimed at ending this war are nearly ready.”
This morning, he added that he was waiting for Trump to set a time and place to sign a deal on US security guarantees.
It isn’t clear if these are references to the same documents but it shows Kyiv thinks things are progressing at least.
Russia has walked a careful line – staying on Trump’s good side without overly committing to anything and maintaining its demands of Ukraine in the event of any possible peace deal.
In comments just this morning, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia stands by “the Anchorage formula”.
This appears to be what Moscow claims was agreed between Trump and Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Alaska last August.
The specifics are not known, but reportedly involve Ukraine giving up large amounts of territory (more on that to come).
Peskov today added:
“Russia’s position is well known: Ukraine and the Ukrainian Armed Forces must leave the territory of Donbas and withdraw from there.”
This ties back to what seems to be the outstanding and unresolved issue – territory.
What’s the stumbling block?
Earlier this week, speaking at Davos, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said just “one issue” remains unsolved.
This is the stumbling block of territory – a problem that has so far been insurmountable.
Vladimir Putin has demanded Ukraine hand over swathes more land – including its so far impenetrable fortress cities – in return for a cessation of fighting.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has called for negotiations to be centred around the current line of contact (see above).
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the issue of territory will be discussed in Abu Dhabi today.
In our explainer below, we also explain if there are any precedents for today’s peace talks, who is negotiating and how things are looking for Ukraine on the ground.
Follow the link to read more…
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