June PPI data came in below expectations across the board, reinforcing the disinflation signal sent by Tuesday’s softer-than-expected CPI report.
Key Figures
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PPI MoM: -0.3% vs 0.0% expected
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PPI Core MoM: 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
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PPI YoY: 5.5% vs 6.2% expected
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PPI Core YoY: 4.7% vs 5.1% expected
These readings follow June CPI, which showed headline inflation falling 0.4% MoM (vs -0.1% expected) and cooling to 3.5% YoY from 4.2%, while core CPI was flat MoM and eased to 2.6% YoY. Both reports now point in the same direction — producer and consumer price pressures are easing simultaneously, a rare alignment after several months of accelerating annual PPI readings that had peaked at 6.5% YoY in May.
Market Reaction
The dollar has weakened modestly following the release, consistent with the historical pattern where softer-than-expected PPI prints reduce the case for a hawkish Fed stance and pressure the greenback lower. With both CPI and PPI surprising to the downside this week, markets are likely to lean further into pricing a less aggressive Fed path, even as the central bank had been resistant to near-term cuts given inflation was still running above target just a month ago.
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